Election 08: Repudiation or Change the Nation?

The election is over and President Elect Obama has begun his journey of hope and change that will surely carry this country into some interesting areas in the next four years. The question that has to be answered at this point is; was this election a repudiation of George W. Bush and his administration or was it a game changer for this country and the conservative movement?

A look at the election results will lead many to assume that this election was a game changer. It will lead many to assume that this is the beginning of the country becoming left center instead of right center. The numbers in raw form are favorable for this opinion. Obama won the election by the biggest margin that a Democrat has won by in over 40 years. On the face of it things would appear grim for the conservative movement and the Republican Party. Republicans were not ready to confront the introduction of new voters into the system. Republicans could not hold the voters in the middle that helped them gain power. Obama was able to introduce people who either did not care or were cynical about the process into the system with his message of hope and change. Republicans will need to figure out how to talk to these new voters quickly in order to prevent this from being a game changing election.

This election was also a clear repudiation of the Bush Administration. Bush's approval rating is historically low. The approval rating of Congress, largely controlled by Republicans for the better part of two decades, is historically low. Bush has been the most reclusive and schizophrenic President since Nixon. The Administration had no message and no ability to communicate success for the last two years, and I would argue that they lost their way for most of the second term. This failure led to an electorate that was angry and the revolt took place at the ballot box. Obama did not win on a substantive message, it is the first time in recent memory that a candidate was able to win with very little detail to his plan. The failing of the Bush Administration and the party was complete long before the election took place. The failing economy and the inability of the Administration to champion the success of the surge and the War on Terror led to the victory of the candidate that was saying what people wanted to hear. Clearly the failures of the party over the last eight years have led to this.

Could this election be a game changer? It most certainly could, but Obama has to work with two mandates going forward. One from new voters whom are going to want results based on their hopes for something new and different. The other from the far left and the people that pushed him to the top of the heap. Obama will not be able to buckle to the far left, he must keep them in line and protect his more important mandate, the one the new voters have given him. If Obama concedes to the far left agenda and vacates his message of something new he will have a difficult time holding this fragile coalition together. Look for Obama to temper his approch and take a considered look at his mandate for change. Obama will try to develop a mandate and hold on to the political capital that he has gained from the electorate, it is the most important political capital that there is.

Republicans going forward need to be vocal when the climate is right to be vocal. They need to counter Obama and give ideas that are sound and different from what he is proposing on the key issues that will be faced over the next four years. Health Care, the economy and the War on Terror are critical areas where the Republican can offer a contrasting viewpoint with a tempered hand. Criticism for the sake of criticism will not work. New voters want something different and the Republicans need to show where they are different from Obama on the substative points that people care about. A failure to provide a cogent and salient differing view on the issues of import will lead to this election being viewed as a game changer and Republicans don't want to get to that decision in the minds of the voters.

2010 will tell us if this was repudiation or game change. Only twice in the history of this country has the party in power in the White House not lost seats in a mid-term election, 1932 and 2002. 2010 will give us some answers, until then I will lean towards this election as repudiation with the potential for game change.